Tuesday, January 20, 2004


On Friday, January 16, CNN published its polling results for the Iowa caucuses in this article. Here's what the polls indicated:When the results were tallied on Monday, January 19, they were:The polls were not even close to predicting reality.

It is interesting to speculate on why the polls could be that far off just one weekend before the event. Some possibilities:Since polls can be so inaccurate, it makes you wonder about all the news stories that use polls to bolster an argument, and all the politicians who listen to those polls. For example, a news story might say, "Polls indicate that 50% of Americans strongly support legalizing assault rifles (or whatever)." Really? How accurate is that number unless you really put it to a vote?

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