Monday, September 18, 2006
Will my kids be immortal?
I have four kids, ages 8, 6, 4 and 4, and the question is: will they die? Or will technology advance far enough, fast enough, to make them immortal?
Right now the typical lifespan of an American is something like 70 to 80 years. So the question boils down to this: what will the typical lifespan be in 2070? And, by that time, is medical science advancing so rapidly that we eventually figure out how to achieve immortality before they actually die?
Here is one scenario. The kids live long enough to Discard Their Bodies. Let's say this happens in 2050 or 2060. By discarding their bodies they significantly increase their natural lifespan to say 150 years. Then, prior to 2150, we figure out how to do brainuploading, or regenerate the natural substrate or something that makes them immortal.
There is some slim chance that today's adults will get in just under the wire. Technology might advance fast enough for you and I to be immortal. If we made it a national emphasis (like the moon race was) there would be a better chance, but I see no evidence that it could be made a national emphasis. I'd say the odds are 50/50 that today's children will be immortal.
Their children, however, have a very good chance of being immortal, unless we do something stupid like blowing the planet up (see previous post).
Right now the typical lifespan of an American is something like 70 to 80 years. So the question boils down to this: what will the typical lifespan be in 2070? And, by that time, is medical science advancing so rapidly that we eventually figure out how to achieve immortality before they actually die?
Here is one scenario. The kids live long enough to Discard Their Bodies. Let's say this happens in 2050 or 2060. By discarding their bodies they significantly increase their natural lifespan to say 150 years. Then, prior to 2150, we figure out how to do brainuploading, or regenerate the natural substrate or something that makes them immortal.
There is some slim chance that today's adults will get in just under the wire. Technology might advance fast enough for you and I to be immortal. If we made it a national emphasis (like the moon race was) there would be a better chance, but I see no evidence that it could be made a national emphasis. I'd say the odds are 50/50 that today's children will be immortal.
Their children, however, have a very good chance of being immortal, unless we do something stupid like blowing the planet up (see previous post).
Comments:
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If the "singularity" is right and happens on schedul they will be imortal. So will you.
# posted by 
: 1:54 PM
: 1:54 PM
You are insane. Humans will never be immortal. The Bible sets th maximum age of humans at 120.
# posted by : 9:38 PM
: 9:38 PM
I, being the selfish little creature I am, am hoping to be able to make it long enough to survive that long myself. Although I am an adult, I am young enough to most likely see the 2070's, and possibly the eighties too. What'll be really funny is when we reach the first decade in which music from a century ago is still popular.
Kurzweil indicates that uploading will be possible around the 2030's and that nanotechnology will be used in the 2020's.
Hey Marshall, it's fascinating stuff and I would like to think it will happen, but what makes you so sure we can get the biology aspect of really interacting with the human brain any time soon? The kind of brain surgery techniques we have now is nothing compared to what would be needed.
"You are insane. Humans will never be immortal. The Bible sets th maximum age of humans at 120."
hahaha i sure hope that was a joke
hahaha i sure hope that was a joke
# posted by : 11:21 AM
: 11:21 AM
You know anon, a French woman died at age 122 not too long ago.
http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/content_pages/record.asp?recordid=48373
http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/content_pages/record.asp?recordid=48373
# posted by : 1:01 PM
: 1:01 PM
Unfortunately Marshall, the question is not whether we collectively are stupid enough to blow ourselves up, but rather whether a few of us are dazzlingly intelligent enough not to.
Working with GAI technology turns out to be FAR more dangerous than sf authors ever feared.
You should REALLY look at
www.singinst.org
and try to learn from them essentially how difficult it actually is to make a GAI that doesn't end up destroying you.
If you want to survive forever, or for anyone to, they are helping them or
http://lifeboat.com/ex/main
is by far your best option.
Working with GAI technology turns out to be FAR more dangerous than sf authors ever feared.
You should REALLY look at
www.singinst.org
and try to learn from them essentially how difficult it actually is to make a GAI that doesn't end up destroying you.
If you want to survive forever, or for anyone to, they are helping them or
http://lifeboat.com/ex/main
is by far your best option.
# posted by : 1:05 PM
: 1:05 PM
True. It is impossible to make sure death can never happen. However, being able to die and being unable to not die are not the same thing, and it may be possible to allow us to live until an unexpected disaster happens, if it does. Besides, "No one IS immortal" just means that if someone becomes immortal, it will be unprecedented.
I suppose we could get rid of disease, our bodies or whatever, but no one will ever be immortal if they reside in the system that we reside in right now.
Systems have failure points, no matter what precautions you make against them and eventually, given enough time, every eventuality will occur.
Sure, you could have 10 billion human 'entities' living in a computer substrate. However, eventually that system is going to fail, and it's back up systems are going to fail, and the backup system's backup systems are going to fail. Etc... After that, 10 billion 'lives' are gone. I suppose they could have existed for many-many millions of years, but to say they are immortal, would be giving it too much credit.
How would one achieve immortality then? I guess one would have to remove themselves from a universe that revolves around cause and effect. Not quite sure how to even begin to figure that one out, but I guess, given enough time, anything is possible.
Systems have failure points, no matter what precautions you make against them and eventually, given enough time, every eventuality will occur.
Sure, you could have 10 billion human 'entities' living in a computer substrate. However, eventually that system is going to fail, and it's back up systems are going to fail, and the backup system's backup systems are going to fail. Etc... After that, 10 billion 'lives' are gone. I suppose they could have existed for many-many millions of years, but to say they are immortal, would be giving it too much credit.
How would one achieve immortality then? I guess one would have to remove themselves from a universe that revolves around cause and effect. Not quite sure how to even begin to figure that one out, but I guess, given enough time, anything is possible.
If every possibility will happen, then everyone dieing and never coming back to life is as likely as everyone reanimating and never dieing again. In fact, if every possible situation were to happen, then everyone would die and reanimate forever, because there infinate ways one can be born, live, and die.
This british futurist seems to think we will have some of these answers in the next 15 to 20 years.
http://www.itwales.com/997789.htm
http://www.itwales.com/997789.htm
# posted by : 1:38 AM
: 1:38 AM
Biblical stories notwithstanding, immortality will never be achieved. Look me up in 100 years if you still want to argue about it.
# posted by : 8:07 PM
: 8:07 PM
I'm 13 and hopeing soon immortality will be an option. Like what will happen when you die where do you go, I think the whole heaven thing is bull, do you reincarnate in another body like I hope Immortality will be an option soon!!
If anyone has answers or opinions post please.
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If anyone has answers or opinions post please.
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