Tuesday, December 13, 2005

Fascinating future timeline

Move over to machines - Peek into a reassuring past and an unsettling future

The British Telecom’s futurology department has put out a timeline listing future events and when they will happen. Here's the top 10:This list has some problems. For example, if robots are superior to humans in 2030, then they will be beating humans at soccer in 2030 too. Once robots have the right to vote, humans become irrelevant (because the number of robots will quickly overwhelm the number of humans, and robots will likely vote for robot leaders), so it seems unlikely people will give robots voting rights any time soon. But it does make you think.

Comments:
Those are not the only problems Ian Pearson has.

He's got a tough time grasping the Singularity as well.

http://jwbats.blogspot.com/2005/07/ian-pearsons-concept-of-singularity.html

TinyURL: http://tinyurl.com/aojwo
 
One key item from the article - the past survey conducted by this group had an 80%+ accuracy rate!
 
I read the list a few years ago and was amazed by it... but then I lost my copy.

Now that I know the name of it again, I was able to find the full list online.
http://www.btplc.com/Innovation/News/timeline/TechnologyTimeline.pdf
 
That's nice.
 
You might like this:
Honda robot serves tea, pushes mail carts
 
obviously marshall you just dont know how good England's soccer team really is! :)
 
These are nice projections. You have to have programmers to make the breakthroughs.

Most programmers are not trained in multithreaded programming much less asychronous programming.

Per Moores law, the equipment will arive on schedule. The vital code will be late.

When Carmack of ID wrote his games, he had Principia Mathematica and Principea Optica to lead him. There is no book or work related to AI of that completeness.

AI is still feeling its way around the dark.

silicon (carbon nanotubes, whatever) is worthless without good code.
 
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